Growing number of civilians targeted, displaced in grim new era of warfare

The changing landscape of war and the fate of civilians was the topic of the 36^th Michael Keenan Memorial Lecture, held on Oct. 29, 2025.

Titled Protecting Civilians in a Turbulent Age, the talk comes at a time in modern history when civilians in many war-torn countries are caught in the crossfire of warring sides, and are often purposely targeted as part of modern military strategy.

The guest speaker was Dr. Jennifer Welsh, the Canada 150 Research Chair in Global Governance and Security at McGill University and director of the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies at McGill's Max Bell School of Public Policy.  

Dr. Welsh's research has focused on contemporary challenges in global governance, conflict management, and Canadian foreign policy, including humanitarian action, collective responses to genocide and war crimes, the protection of civilians in armed conflict, and forced displacement.

While at McGill, Dr. Welsh has led several collaborative research projects with Canadian and international scholars, built a vibrant community of faculty and students interested in global affairs and Canada's role in the world, and co-directed a Canada-wide research network on Women, Peace, and Security. She has frequently provided input into policy initiatives for the Canadian government and the United Nations, as well as for international NGOs.

Welsh said the long-held idea that civilians should be protected is under siege.

“Every year the UN Secretary General sponsors a report for the UN Security Council on the protection of civilians. And in his last report to the council, he referred to the state of protection of civilians as resoundingly grim,” she said.

The year 2023 saw 33,000 recorded civilian deaths in armed conflict, which was a 70% increase from 2022. In 2024 the number grew to 36,000 civilian deaths in 14 armed conflicts.

“And added to this are the statistics on force displacement,” Welsh said. “I've been teaching a class on forced migration for the last six years, and when I started in 2019, I said it's the highest number of people on the move since the Second World War -- and it was 65 million people. In this past year that has almost doubled to 122 million people.”

“So, the violence that's being experienced by civilians today is reaching levels not seen in many, many decades. And there's a seeming race to the bottom in terms of the level of restraint that is exercised by conflict parties.”

Welsh said the Russian war on Ukraine gives a glimpse of what the future of armed conflict might look like.

She said today’s environment, with regard to protecting civilians, hinges on three main problems: impunity, indifference and the shrinking space for normative agendas like protection.

“It's important for us to remember that the contemporary laws of war attempt to strike a balance between military necessity and humanitarian considerations,” Welsh said. “We might start to ask whether military necessity is gaining the upper hand.”

Welsh’s complete presentation can be viewed on the St. Thomas More College YouTube channel (STM1936) at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvhNHSw_T0s